Calculator

Promo Discount Lift Threshold Calculator

A promotion does not need “more orders.” It needs enough incremental orders to pay back the contribution lost on discounted baseline volume and any campaign spend you are layering on top. This calculator shows the threshold clearly.

Estimate required incremental orders to reach parity
See how much contribution the discount burns on base volume
Judge expected lift against a real threshold, not optimism

Calculate the lift threshold

Start with baseline AOV and contribution margin, then layer in discount depth, baseline monthly orders, promo spend, and the order lift you expect. The result shows whether the campaign clears the line or just makes the store busier.

Baseline AOV Average order value before the promotion starts. Contribution margin % Share of baseline revenue that survives as contribution. Discount rate % Promotional discount applied to all promo orders. Baseline monthly orders Used to estimate how much contribution existing orders give up. Promo spend Media or campaign cost layered on top of the discount. Expected incremental orders The extra orders you believe the campaign will create.

Three lift-threshold scenarios.

Formula

What the threshold is protecting

Required incremental orders = (Contribution lost on base volume + Promo spend) ÷ Discounted contribution per order

Required lift rate = Required incremental orders ÷ Baseline monthly orders

This is not a revenue threshold. It assumes baseline orders also get discounted, which means the campaign starts by giving up contribution before any new order arrives. The lift has to earn that loss back first.

Where lift assumptions get sloppy

Teams celebrate incremental orders without pricing the loss on baseline orders.
Campaign spend gets judged separately from the discount, even though both hit the same offer.
The threshold is guessed from revenue instead of contribution per promo order.

Where to go next

Once the threshold is visible, compare it against payback speed and offer waterfalls so the promotion is judged as a margin system, not as a traffic event.